Vietnam is poised for a boost in its rice export value by the end of 2026, driven by recovering international prices and rising demand in key global markets. By mid-August, the country had exported an estimated 5.7 million tonnes of rice, with projections for the full year reaching 7.7 million tonnes. Despite a forecasted export earnings of approximately US$3.9 billion—about 4% lower than the previous year due to weak prices in the first half—recent price increases of 5.8% year-on-year since July could enhance Vietnam’s revenue from rice exports in the latter part of the year.
Global market dynamics are expected to favor Vietnam’s rice industry. The 2026-27 crop year might see a supply-demand deficit, potentially driving up trade to record levels. Additionally, concerns over a potential strong El Niño are prompting countries to bolster their food reserves. Vietnam’s largest rice market, the Philippines, is set to import around 5.6 million tonnes in the 2026-27 crop year to augment its reserves. Meanwhile, China is ramping up its rice imports, particularly broken rice for animal feed, creating new avenues for Vietnamese exporters.
Other international markets also present opportunities. Nigeria is anticipated to face a substantial rice supply gap, while Kenya has temporarily removed import duties on white rice under a quota system. Furthermore, Vietnamese exporters are tapping into premium markets where high-quality, low-emission certified rice can fetch over US$1,000 per tonne in regions such as Japan, the European Union, and Australia.
Despite a promising outlook, Vietnam’s rice sector confronts several hurdles. The Philippines is contemplating additional safeguard duties on rice imports from Vietnam and other suppliers, which could elevate the combined tariff beyond 35%, potentially impacting Vietnamese exports to its primary market. Indonesia, due to strong local production and high reserves, is unlikely to import rice this year. Additionally, Vietnamese rice is facing stiff price competition from India and Pakistan in various African markets, while Thailand and Cambodia are expanding their footprint in China and with fragrant rice exports, respectively.
Moreover, escalating costs related to fertilizers, transportation, and energy are straining farmers and exporters. The looming threat of El Niño could further complicate matters by inducing drought and saltwater intrusion towards late 2026 and early 2027, possibly influencing the next winter-spring rice crop. While recovering prices and heightened demand, especially for premium rice, suggest potential gains for Vietnam’s rice exports, tariffs, competitive pressures, and weather-related risks remain significant concerns.